David Morgenstern of eWeek speculates on which Macs will be allowed to run Leopard. His main two differentiating factors: G3s and VRAM.
The last G3 Mac released was the last round of iBook G3s in the fall of 2003. The last Mac released with <32mb of VRAM was the iBook G3 700 way back in 2002. Those are probably surefire cutoffs, and making one a requirement effectively makes the other one a requirement, except for the case of PowerMac G3s with upgradable video.
David also speculates that the G4 and/or <64mb VRAM could be left behind, but this is unlikely since Apple released iBooks with G4s and 32mb VRAM back in May. I think it's a definite possibility for Apple to leave behind all PowerPC processors for 10.6, which should be released sometime in 2008-9, at least two years after the Intel transition is finished (assuming Mac Pros at WWDC).
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